Stephen Leahy, International Environmental Journalist

Discovering Global Environmental Interconnections

Why Our Weather is Weird ‘n Wild and Why It Is Getting Worse

with 6 comments

Burning Fossil Fuels Bringing Heavy Rains and Flooding

(Bonus: How we can kick the fossil fuel addiction)

 

By Stephen Leahy

UXBRIDGE, Canada, Feb 16, 2011 (IPS)

Human-induced heating of the planet has already made rainfall more intense, leading to more severe floods, researchers announced Wednesday.

Two new studies document significant impacts with just a fraction of the heating yet to come from the burning of fossil fuels. Fortunately, another new report shows the world can end its addiction to climate-wrecking fossil-fuel energy by 2050.

“Warmer air contains more moisture and leads to more extreme precipitation,” said Francis Zwiers of the University of Victoria.

Extreme precipitation and flooding over the entire northern hemisphere increased by seven percent between 1951 and 1999 as a result of anthropogenic global warming. That represents a “substantial change”, Zwiers told IPS, and more than twice the increase projected by climate modeling.

Zwiers and Xuebin Zhang of Environment Canada used observations from over 6,000 weather stations to measure the impact of climate warming on the intensity of extreme precipitation for the first time. The study was published Wednesday in the journal Nature.

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The planet is currently 0.8 degrees C hotter from the burning of fossil fuels. However, global temperatures had not yet started to increase in 1951, the first year of rainfall data Zwiers and Xuebin examined. By 1999, global temperatures had climbed by about 0.6 degrees C. The average temperature increase over that 50-year period is relatively small compared to the present but major impacts have been documented in terms of storm and flood damage even with this small increase in temperatures.

This suggests that the Earth’s climatic system may be more sensitive to small temperature increases than previously believed.

The global costs of extreme weather events shot up from less than five billion dollars a year during the 1950s to 45 billion dollars a year during the 1990s, according to Munich Re, a major reinsurance company in Germany. Not all of this increase is due to climate change. Some is due to population and infrastructure growth and better disaster reporting. However, the number of significant floods has tripled in the past 30 years.

Those costs came during a time when the planet was cooler than present – a period of “relatively weak anthropogenic forcing”, Zwiers said. But as temperatures climbed, there was a sharp increase in intense rainfall events during the 1990s, suggesting an acceleration in flooding and damaging rainfall. Zwiers said it is too soon to know if the 1990s increase represents a new trend.

Global temperatures are guaranteed to increase further from today’s 0.8 degrees C to at least 1.0 degree C by 2020. This will boost the amount of water vapour and heat in the atmosphere, which are the fuel for even more and harder rainfall events.

Scientists have long known extreme events would increase with a hotter planet but have maintained that a single flood or storm could not be explicitly linked to climate change. Now another study published Wednesday in Nature lays odds they’ve found the “smoking gun” behind Britain’s severe flooding in 2000.

During the fall of 2000, the UK experienced some of its most damaging floods and wettest weather since the first records began in 1766. Using the distributed computing power from thousands of personal computers around the world, researchers at Oxford University and others determined that human emissions of greenhouse gases had more than doubled the odds of the devastating 2000 flood.

“We simulated a parallel world in which there were no greenhouse gas emissions,” said lead researcher Pardeep Pall of Oxford University.

Thousand of computer simulations were tested against reality and the results revealed that climate change more than doubled the odds of the 2000 flooding, Pall said at a press conference.

“This study was 20 times more demanding than anything we’re tried before. It is not easy to precisely say what caused what when it comes to a single weather event,” added Myles Allen of Oxford University.

The UK Met Office is developing new methods for assessing extreme weather events and determining the factors that caused them in hopes of improving predictions. In future, the Met Office may be able to predict such events and explain why they happened, said Allen.

With human-induced heating of the planet expected by many to reach at least 2.4 degrees C in the coming decades, extreme events of the recent past will seem very tame indeed. However, this calamitous future can be avoided with a rapid transition to a renewable global energy system.

A detailed new study demonstrates that 95 percent of global energy needs can be meet with renewables utilising today’s technologies alone.

The Energy Report by Ecofys, a leading energy consulting firm in the Netherlands, is the first to show that 95 percent of all energy can be renewable by 2050, while offering comfortable lifestyles for a growing global population and allowing a tripling of the global economy.

“We can do this by using and improving the technologies that are already at hand,” said Manon Janssen, CEO of Ecofys. “It is a business opportunity, as much as it is a technological challenge.”

Ecofys spent two years preparing the report in partnership with the World Wildlife Fund.

Paramount will be major increases in energy efficiency in all sectors so that by 2050 energy use is 15 percent less than the energy use in 2005. And this is all possible with existing technology, the report noted. Emissions from burning fossil fuels for energy will fall more than 80 percent by 2050, offering a real chance of keeping global temperatures below 2 degrees C, the report said.

While the transition will be costly, the savings from lower energy use will amount to a five- to six-trillion-dollar “windfall” for humanity by 2050.

The move to renewable energy is already well underway in places like California, where the cost of generating solar energy is now as cheap as fossil fuels, said Justin Gerdes, a California journalist specialising in energy issues.

“Renewables already benefit from lower upfront costs to install – especially onshore wind – compared to huge one- gigawatt fossil fuel or nuclear plants,” Gerdes said. “And, then, of course, the renewables have no cost for fuel.”

And this is happening in the U.S., where climate change is a non-issue politically and there is no price or cap on carbon emissions.

“In short, this can happen,” Gerdes said.

First published as Link Confirmed Between Warming and Heavy Storms – IPS ipsnews.net

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6 Responses

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  1. Very true on all of your research and data entries, I am wondering when and what it will take for humanity to change its ways of life and be able to step back and look at how we are taking every thing from this earth for granted. I think its going to have to take the biggest disaster in all of humanity to really give every one that BIG wake up call that we have needed. Be it and I hate to say a super volcano or a world wide ice age. This is the only way that the people and governments will step back and see that its to late. Though the super volcano isnt the best way to use simply because its a natural earth process, but the ice age is the one that we can some what control. But any way thats my little 2 cents on all of this.

    Eddie

    25/02/2011 at 7:04 pm

  2. ‘The Energy Report’ referred to in your article is undoubtedly thorough and comprehensive but I believe it is flawed. I researched the same ground two years ago in writing a book for engineers entitled ‘Energy for a Warming World’, published by Springer-Verlag Ltd., London, in early 2010. While the supply of energy from renewables by the second half of the century agrees with my own estimates, the above report suggests that half of it will come from bio-fuels. It is really very difficult to believe that this is likely. The growing loss of arable land in many parts of the world, and the increasing difficulties for farmers of unpredictable weather associated with climate change, is already causing food shortages and price volatility. The current troubles in North Africa were triggered by food prices. So it seems to me that 30-40 years into the future, global warming and weather extremes will be major sources of crop failures, and with global population set to rise by ~40% by the end of the century, the use of viable crop lands for bio-fuel production is very unlikely to be tolerated by countries blighted by food shortages..

    My own estimates suggest that mankind could extract about 400 EJ/yr from wind, solar, wave, tidal, hydro and geothermal sources. This does not permit business-as-usual levels of demand but it does support 1990’s lifestyles provides population growth can be slowed and preferably reversed.

    A. J. Sangster

    05/03/2011 at 11:29 am

  3. Relax, and breath, then do it again, People.
    When Vice President Gore did the video “An Inconvenient Truth” about Global Warming, mostly everyone laughed . Well, no one is laughing now.

    Donald

    06/02/2012 at 7:10 pm

  4. every day my mind goes numb with new ways to scare people into giving up what we in America have worked so hard for as a society to make us into the greatest country in the earths history. things are more under control now than at any other time.go ride your electric car it 40 mile limit get out and breath and when you exhale scream thank you for being alive. what the heck are you savings anyway. say something positive i dare you.

    mark

    22/04/2012 at 6:39 pm


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