Measuring Bali With A Scientific Yardstick

By Stephen Leahyunfccc-bali-logo.jpg


Dec 17 (IPS) – A tiny step was taken Saturday in meeting the greatest challenge humanity has ever faced.

But it was nearly a step backward as the crucial climate talks in Bali almost collapsed when the United States refused to join the global consensus. However, after Kevin Conrad representing Papua New Guinea told the U.S. delegation if they weren’t going to be leaders, to please get out of the way, the U.S. reversed its position and accepted what is called the “Bali roadmap“.

But before considering this new political roadmap on climate change, what route did the scientific roadmap tell us to take?

A month ago, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), which was recently awarded the Nobel Peace Prize, issued urgent warnings that global emissions of greenhouse gases must peak and begin to decline within 10 to 15 years. Many of world’s leading climate scientists have said that failure is not an option because it will irreversibly destabilise the planet’s climate system.

bali-final-agreement.jpg

The millions of people already being affected by climate change will rapidly become hundreds of millions without major reductions. And there is a high risk that unique ecosystems that sustain life, such as coral reefs, will collapse.

Climate science says the first important step on our journey to prevent dangerous climate change is for industrialised countries to reduce their emissions by 25 to 40 percent below 1990 levels by 2020. Representatives from industrialised countries actually agreed with the scientists at a U.N. Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) meeting last August in Vienna.

And throughout the two-week Bali climate change talks, Yvo de Boer, executive secretary of the UNFCCC, often reiterated this was the route that climate science had clearly laid out.

So where does the Bali roadmap lead us?

There is no mention of the 25 to 40 percent below 1990 levels by 2020. Canada, the U.S. and Japan had steadfastly opposed any specific reduction targets for industrialised countries. This was bitterly opposed by the European Union and many developing nations.

For the sake of reaching an agreement, they eventually compromised and there are no specific emissions targets in the final agreement. It does acknowledge that “deep cuts in global emissions will be required to achieve the ultimate objective” of avoiding dangerous climate change.

The Bali roadmap is essentially an agreement to start a two-year process of negotiations designed to agree on a new set of emissions targets to replace those in the Kyoto Protocol. While this may not seem like much progress, there had been serious debate about a longer negotiation period which would postpone action well into the future.

And until the last, the U.S. — which alone which accounts for about a quarter of the world’s global warming emissions — objected to a specific declaration that “deep cuts in global emissions” were needed, saying the science remains uncertain.

“The [George W.] Bush administration has unscrupulously taken a monkey wrench to the level of action on climate change that the science demands,” said Gerd Leipold, executive director of Greenpeace International.

“They’ve relegated the science to a footnote,” said Leipold in a statement.

Without reduction targets, what was achieved in Bali?

To see complete article see Measuring Bali by a Scientific Yardstick

2 thoughts on “Measuring Bali With A Scientific Yardstick

  1. Good reporting, sir. I think the world is wondering also: was anything really accomplished at Bali 2007? Just agree to talk in two more years, and then agree then to talk in 2015 and then agree to talk in 2050? All this talking will surely lead to more hot air…..when does the world stand up and take action? NOW?

  2. When a claim is made, validation must follow or the claim is invalid. The claim was made that CO2 imission causes global warming. I have yet to see the validation, therefore, the claim is invalid.

    phil

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