“I Hope We Are Civilised When Climate Disaster Hits”
Stephen Leahy interviews JAMES LOVELOCK the scientist who first proposed the Gaia Hypothesis
TORONTO, Jun 5 (Tierramérica)
“When the first great climate disaster strikes, I hope we will all pull together just as if our nation were being invaded,” says British scientist James Lovelock in this exclusive Tierramérica interview.
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As the world marksInternational Environment Day Friday, Lovelock argues that as the climate warms and the carbon content of the atmosphere soars, humanity is facing a far grimmer future that will be upon us sooner than any of the projections made by the Intergovernmental Panel Climate Change (IPCC).
A chemist, physician and biophysicist, Lovelock is one of the world’s foremost environmental scientists and founder of the Gaia Hypothesis, which describes the planet as a living organism, a complex system in which the components of the biosphere and atmosphere interact to regulate and sustain life.
Although his ideas often feed controversy, Lovelock has wide-ranging scientific credentials. As an inventor, he holds more than 50 patents, including the first devices for detecting the presence of ozone-depleting CFCs (chlorofluorocarbons) and pesticide residues in the environment.
He is also the author of many books. The most recent, “The Vanishing Face of Gaia: A Final Warning”, was published in April. Lovelock spoke with Tierramérica’s Stephen Leahy in Toronto.
TIERRAMÉRICA: Why are you critical of the IPCC?
JAMES LOVELOCK: There are many excellent scientists working with the IPCC but their computer climate models cannot model the biosphere’s response to increasing temperatures from global warming. The models do not include forest or ocean response to rising carbon dioxide levels. They cannot model a self-regulating Earth as yet. That is why the IPCC projections are so far off the mark.
Observational evidence shows sea level rise has been much higher and the melting of the Arctic is happening far more quickly than IPCC predictions. Climate change is happening much faster than most realise.
TIERRAMÉRICA: Has the Earth already passed a climate tipping point?
JL: Yes, I think it has. The Earth is already moving towards a hotter state in response to the changes we’ve made in transforming much of the surface of the planet and adding CO2 into the atmosphere.
Let’s not forget that the Earth was once nearly entirely forested and those forests were a major part of a living planet’s regulatory system.
Based on Gaia theory at some point in the future there will be a sudden shift to a new global climate that may be 5 or 6 degrees Celsius warmer on average than today. I have no idea when that shift might happen but my guess is that we may have 20 years to prepare.
TIERRAMÉRICA: What will this new climate be like?
JL: The tropical and subtropical zones of the Earth will be too hot and dry to grow food or support human life. People will be forced to migrate towards the poles to places like Canada. There will be less than one billion people by the end of the century. My hope is that we will stay civilised and those in the North will give refuge to the unimaginably large numbers of climate refugees.
TIERRAMÉRICA: You paint a grim view of the future. Is there no hope?
JL: My main point is that we humans need to adapt and survive on this new hotter planet. Humans survived the last interglacial age, when ice covered much of North America and Europe and sea levels were 120 metres higher than today. The first step is to stop thinking blindly that all we have to do is reduce our carbon footprint, and begin preparations to adapt to what is coming.
For complete interview Q&A: “I Hope We Are Civilised When Climate Disaster Hits”
Stumble It!
> The first step is to stop thinking blindly that all we have to do is reduce our carbon footprint…
Nobody who is reasonably informed is “thinking blindly”. Reduction of carbon pollution is by far the most important issue today – we must mitigate climate change and limit the damage as much as possible.
I think Lovelock’s spiel about ‘Gaia’ and his cheerful predictions of billions dying are dangerous nonsense that is being eagerly embraced by the deniers and delayers. Why should they act when most of us are doomed anyway?
> My hope is that we will stay civilised and those in the North will give refuge to the unimaginably large numbers of climate refugees.
This is a clear demonstration of ignorance and naiveté at work. Look at the turmoil created by New Orleans. There’s no way millions of refugees can be accommodated.
Hopefully very few people will pay attention to Lovelock and instead look to professional climate scientists for their climate science and the actions we need to take to avert catastrophic climate change.
P.S. I’ve no idea where he got his sea level of +120m. for the last interglacial – it was more like +6m.
David C
08/07/2009 at 3:34 pm
Lovelock is definitely an outsider on this — and he acknowledges he doesn’t have the data to back up his contentions. That said his points that the current state of climate science likely underestimates the speed and extent of CC are correct as many in the field acknowledge.
Good catch on the interglacial sea level — 6+ meters is correct…will check the transcripts
Stephen
08/07/2009 at 3:51 pm
Absolutely, the IPCC predictions are out of date – some were out of date or lacking (e.g. glacier melt was not factored in to sea level rise) when they were published. Also, consider that the papers used for the FAR synthesis are at least ~4, possibly 5-years old now. A *lot* has happened in that time – not least of which is another 100+ billion tons of carbon released.
And agreed that speed and extent have often been underestimated (e.g. http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2009/jul/08/arctic-ice-ocean), but climate scientists are still the best source for climate science, not maverick scientists with books to sell.
The underestimates by the scientific community simply increase the urgency with which we must act to reduce and stop carbon pollution.
I’ve read / watched a number of Lovelock’s interviews recently and I think his cheerful nihilism damages the cause. This one was more of the same. I guess I’ve made clear that I’m not a fan.
David C
08/07/2009 at 4:32 pm
He’s a very interesting person and difficult to dislike. However I did not like his book for many, many reasons. And agree he is not the best source on climate science.
At first his nihilism bothered me a great deal as well but doesn’t now for some reason.
Stephen
08/07/2009 at 4:45 pm
[...] Stephen Leahy Simon Leufstedt Simon Leufstedt is the founder and editor of Green Blog – an environment blog [...]
Green Blog » Blog Archive » James Lovelock: “I hope we are civilised when climate disaster strikes”
13/07/2009 at 6:50 am
A guy who can advocate nuclear power obviously can’t have much of a care for the future in any case.
Robyn
28/02/2010 at 9:21 am
[...] also my 2009 interview with Lovelock "I Hope We Are Civilised When Climate Disaster Hits” [...]
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