Paris Climate Talks – Science Behind Need for 1.5C

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No climate scientist thinks two degrees C will be “safe”. Many countries, especially least-developed countries and small island states, have been calling for global target to be less than 1.5C of heating in 2009 at COP 15 in Copenhagen. Before that some countries launched  ‘1.5 to stay alive’ campaign at the UN in September 2009.

Humans have enjoyed 10,000 years of climate stability, in which the global average temperature varied less than one degree C – even during the Little Ice Age.

This heating will be wildly uneven with the Arctic warming 2-3 times faster. In 1.5C world much of the far north will be 4.0C. Canada is already 1.6 to 1.8 C warmer today.

Large parts of Africa including the African Sahel, including the Horn of Africa, are very vulnerable to any increase in temperatures. Even with 1.5C large portions of the Arctic and Antarctic will continue to melt raising sea levels, albeit at a slower rate threatening the very existence of some small islands states.

Delay in making the shift to non-fossil fuel energy sources will be very costly. Waiting until 2020 to curb global emissions will cost twice as much compared with peaking emissions by 2015 various analysis have shown.

At least 65% of Existing Coal Plants Must be Shuttered by 2030
Serious action to reduce greenhouse gas emissions means 65 percent of current coal power plants will have to be shut down in the next decade or two, a 2012 study concludes.

There are enormous benefits if global emissions decline before 2020. Failure to do so will mean we will need to use more nuclear, massive amounts of bioenergy, large-scale carbon capture and storage

  • Joeri Rogelj, a climate scientist at Switzerland’s Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Science

Paris Climate Talks – Update & Key Disputes

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Late Wednesday night for over 3 hours dozens of countries’ stated the draft Paris Agreement is a great start but… x, y and z need fixing.

And so informal groups are meeting overnight to find compromises on a number of key issues. In the morning a new revised draft Paris Agreement will be released. There will still be bracketed issue.

Expect negotiations to go into the weekend.cop21 logo sml

Key Issues in Dispute

* Developing countries want a strong and separate article for the Warsaw International Mechanism for loss and damage associated with climate change impacts

* Finance – who’s going to pay and by when. More $$ from rich nations will be needed

* Differentiation – who has to do what

* Ambition – what’s the long-term temperature goal

* Response measures -what to do when measures to address climate change hurt fossil fuel-dependent economies ie Saudi Arabia

 

Paris Climate Talks – Breaking: Options for Global Target 1.5C

Final President’s Draft  Just Released

At 3pm CET Dec 9 the President’s draft was released. It’s much shorter at 29 pages. A quick glance reveals perhaps two dozen brackets down from 800 a few days ago.

Parties will review this new next and reconvene the plenary at 8 pm CET to figure out how to resolve the remaining contested issues.

 

 On the Contentious Issue of 1.5 vs 2.0C

— 3 options still to debate — see below

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Paris Climate Talks: Three Major Issues

The main issue in Copenhagen in 2009 was determining each country’s fair share of CO2 emission reductions cuts and by when. If a flag could be attached to every CO2 molecule humanity has put into the atmosphere over the last 150 years, about 70 percent would be the flags of wealthy countries: the U.S., United Kingdom, Germany and so on.

Those rich nations agreed to make some CO2 cuts by 2020 but they were mostly small and voluntary. In exchange poor countries were promised $100 billion a year by 2020.

How much has changed at COP 21?cop21 logo sml

#1 Most countries have filed their plans for emissions reductions but they aren’t big enough to keep temperatures below 2C, never mind 1.5C. There is agreement more cuts are needed but the big issue is when. Europe and small countries want to see another round of cuts every 5 years starting as soon as 2020. Other countries like India want longer time frames.

 #2 Money has always been issue. In Copenhagen rich countries promised $100 billion a year by 2020 to help poor countries cope with climate impacts and  to green their economies. The money was supposed to ramp up from about $10 billion a year in 2010. Instead it’s been a fight to get any funds. Now developing countries want  guaranteed amounts from 2015 to 2020.

#3 Legally binding agreement. For the first time the US is saying it will agree to this for parts of an eventual Paris Climate Agreement. The US will not sign a legal-binding emission reduction target, Todd Stern, the chief negotiator said today.

First posted on Climate News Mosaic Live Blog available at Inter Press Service  news

Paris Climate Talks – Most Countries Want 1.5C Target not 2.0C

 

Wrapping Day 2 of COP 21
 

Majority of Countries want 1.5 C target not 2.0C

Leaders of 30 nations began the Paris climate negotiations with a call to cut CO2 emissions dramatically to keep the global average temperature rise below 1.5C. These countries are part of Climate Vulnerable Forum (CVF) — countries highly vulnerable to impacts of climate change.

The call for a global target of 1.5C is supported by 106 of the 195 countries in Paris this week. They also call for 100 percent renewable energy and a full decarbonization of the global economy by 2050.

Important to note that 2.0C is a political target not a scientific one. Moreover climate science does support 1.5C as a safer level of climatic change than 2.0. Currently global warming is 1.0C.cop21 logo sml 

Leaders Inspired Speeches but BAU for Negotiators
Monday saw 150 leaders making speeches about the need for urgent action. However in the negotiating rooms today it was business as usual crawling along at a snail’s pace with negotiators apparently oblivious to their leaders impassioned speeches and pleas for urgent action said Saleemul Huq is the Director of the International Centre for Climate Change & Development (ICCCAD) in Bangladesh.

Renewables Everyone’s Favorite Energy Technology

Billions and billions of dollars are being promised for renewables:
U.S. President Barack Obama, French President Francois Hollande and 18 other world leaders launched Mission Innovation, a $20-billion commitment to accelerate public and private clean energy innovation worldwide.

Bill Gates and other tech billionaires unveiled the Breakthrough Energy Coalition, to bring billions of dollars to help new, clean energy technologies come to market.

India’s prime minister announced an international solar alliance of over 120 countries. 

Tuesday also featured a focus on forests

 

Deforestation accounts for at least 12 percent of CO2 emissions and among developing countries it’s often the largest source of emissions. Today the Lima-Paris Action Agenda “Forest Focus” launched a number of forest protection initiatives including a commitment Germany, Norway and the United Kingdom, to provide $5 billion from 2015 to 2020, if forest countries demonstrate measured, reported and verified emission reductions.

First posted on Climate News Mosaic Live Blog

What a Difference Six Years Makes: Copenhagen to Paris

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Climate March 100% is Possible – Ottawa, Canada. Credit: Renee Leahy
The Paris climate talks began today following a weekend where a record-breaking 785,000 people in 175 countries marched in support of strong climate action. In addition almost 1.8 million people of faith signed a petition for compassionate climate action.With nearly 150 Heads of State on hand the COP 21 negotiations began Monday. Hopes are high there will be a strong, new global agreement to tackle climate change. Unlike six years ago in Copenhagen at COP 15, there is now broad public support for action on climate and virtually all leaders now take the issue very seriously.cop21 logo smlOne of the very first side meetings outside of the negotiations today featured the World Bank, the leaders of Germany, Mexico, Chile, Canada and others calling for a global price on carbon. [Watch it here]The world simply cannot afford to continue polluting the atmosphere with carbon said World Bank President Jim Yong Kim.

“We need to drastically cut CO2 emissions… or we will push another 100 million people into poverty” Kim said.

Global price on carbon inevitable

Putting a price on carbon is now seen as an inevitable in the creation of a low carbon economy that will eventually take the world to zero CO2 emissions he said.

“The price of solar has fallen 50 per cent since Copenhagen,” said Keya Chatterjee of the US Climate Action Network.

There has also been huge growth in the numbers of climate activists and in public support for real action on climate over the past six years Chatterjee said in a press conference.

The only question now is how much has political will grown, she said.

A great deal of political will is needed to overcome the many remaining obstacles to a comprehensive, ambitious, and universal climate agreement. These obstacles include finance, equity, legal status of the agreement and so on will become clear over the next two weeks.

For now hope is also back after a six year absence.

First posted on Climate News Mosaic Live Blog

Climate News Mosaic Live Blog of Paris Climate Talks

 

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A historic climate change conference is taking place in Paris, France from November 30 to December 11th. World leaders from more than 195 nations will meet to work on a new international climate deal, with the aim of keeping global warming below 2 degrees Celsius.

The award-winning Climate News Mosaic (CNM) will provide a free daily live blog to track all progress, major announcements and events, latest scientific reports, as well as happenings in and outside of the conference halls with stories, photos, videos, soundbites from experienced journalists from different countries.

The live blog will also feature climate news updates, reactions and short reports from a variety of countries for a unique mix of global and local coverage.

The Climate News Mosaic (CNM) is the award-winning collaboration of independent environmental journalists from Canada, the Philippines, Germany, Italy, Costa Rica, Brazil and many more. In 2014 CNM won the international HostWriter Prize for its collaborative coverage of the UN Climate Change Conference in Warsaw (COP 19). The live blog was hosted on nine news sites including the Inter Press News Service, Climate Home, Earth Journalism Network.

Stay up-to-date. Follow @climatemosaic on Twitter for the latest news and information in follow-up to the summit and elsewhere (hashtag: #climate2015)

Host the CNM Live Blog

Would you be interested in hosting the Climate News Mosaic COP 21 live blog  your website? A small snippet of open source code from Germany’s Sourcefabric is all that’s needed. Please contact CNM co-founder Stephen Leahy